Earlier, I compared the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA numbers and the community projections by Viva El Birdos and CardsClubhouse to the actual stats of some of the Cardinals. The ones in the previous post were players that had already been shut down for the year. With the season well over now, it’s time to reflect on the others that we projected before the season began.
Edmonds, like most every player on the Cardinals, battled injuries throughout the year. The extent of his offseason surgery was probably underplayed in the minds of the Cardinal projectors, as Edmonds never quite got his groove on in 2007.
Edmonds is the only hitter that was left (surprisingly, we didn’t do Mr. Pujols, probably figuring it was too easy!), but there are three pitchers left to examine.
Anyone that’s read this blog for very long knows that, at least for a while, Wells was not as bad as these numbers suggest. The middle of the season was pretty good for him. The beginning and end, well, not so much. Wells’s gamble on signing a one-year contract to build up his value didn’t really pan out and he should be elsewhere come next April.
One of the unheralded stories of the 2007 season was the return to form of Jason Isringhausen. After an ’06 so bad that people booed him and his season ended early (meaning that Adam Wainwright was the last pitcher to throw a pitch last year), he bounced back better than most anyone expected. If the team hadn’t played so many blowout games (whether wins or losses), his save totals might have been a bit higher. Picking up his option this offseason was really a no-brainer.
As bad as 2006 was, it would have been so much worse if Wainwright hadn’t stepped into the ace role. Walt gets slammed for the Haren trade often, but he’s got to get some credit for getting a young pitcher like this into the organization.