Number Crunching

OK, after doing the daydreaming yesterday, I thought I’d see if Santana would even fit into the budget. I was a little encouraged to hear Bill DeWitt say that they were increasing payroll by some amount anyway, but would make a significant increase for the right player. Surely, we can agree that Santana would fit that description.

Problem is, I’m not much on projections, at least salary-wise. So please let me know where you think I’m too low on any estimates. The actual numbers are taken from Cot’s website.

Pos Player Salary
C Molina 2.00
C BoBC 0.50
1B Pujols 13.00
2B Kennedy 3.50
3B Rolen 12.00
SS Ryan 0.40
INF Miles 2.00
INF Speizio 2.30
LF Encarnacion 6.50
CF Edmonds 8.00
RF Ankiel 2.00
OF Ludwick 0.40
OF Schumaker 0.60
SP Wainwright 4.00
SP Looper 5.50
SP Santana 13.50
SP Thompson 0.60
SP Pineiro 3.00
RP Franklin 2.25
RP Flores 1.00
RP Johnson 0.60
RP Kinney 0.50
RP Springer 1.00
RP Perez 0.40
CP Isringhausen 8.00
DL Mulder 6.50
DL Carpenter 10.50
Total 110.55

OK, first off, all the numbers bolded are estimates or assumptions.  Some of which are as follows:

  • I figure they’ll try to lock up Molina to a long term deal this offseason, especially (as this exercise assumes) if they trade Bryan Anderson.  I was guessing a 3 year deal for $6, but that easily could go higher.  It’ll be backloaded as well, most likely.
  • BoBC=Brotherhood of Backup Catchers.  Maybe Bennett, maybe someone else.
  • Players like Ryan, Ludwick, Schumaker, Thompson, Johnson, and Kinney are under Cardinal control and shouldn’t get much of a bump from this year’s salary.  I don’t think any of them will be under consideration for a longer deal.
  • I would think they’d look to keep Wainwright out of arbitration and buy out a few of those years.  I had $12 million over 3 years, but it might go longer or be higher (or both).  Again, though, they’d probably do some backloading.
  • Wasn’t sure how much Pineiro or Springer would resign for.  Gave it a rough guess.
  • Didn’t add any deferred money into the calculation, because I’ve seen discussions before that the Cardinals consider payroll what they pay out in that year, not including the amounts they set aside to pay later.
  • I added Mulder and Carpenter to the payroll.  Mulder especially because he should be pitching by May.  Carpenter’s contract may get covered by insurance this year, but I don’t know how much would be paid by the insurance company.
  • I put Encarnacion in there as well, but if he can’t play, I’m sure the Cardinals will have some recourse there as well.
  • Bennett and Taguchi have buyouts, but they don’t total more than $25K, I don’t think.

There you have it.  If this is even in the ballpark, adding Santana wouldn’t do irreparable damage to the budget, at least not for 2008.  The Cardinals would definitely be going with the “studs and scrubs” philosophy, but with so many young guys able to contribute, it allows you to have people like Pujols, Carpenter and Santana on the same team.

Be sure to let me know where I’m off in the comments, and I’ll rerun the numbers.

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5 Responses to “Number Crunching”

  1. tom@cardinalsgm.com Says:

    Santana…ahhh that has a good ring to it when in the same sentence as the Cardinals.

    *pop* whoa time to wake up….had this dream about the Cardinals signing Johan Santana and things were very rosy until Big bad George and Ornery Omar came into my dream and stole my pitcher…. what a nightmare!

    We can’t offer enough I am afraid to pay him what he is going to receive. Sorry to burst your bubble but it is your dream and you can end it anyway you wish.

  2. cardinal70 Says:

    I agree, if it comes to a bidding war, the Cardinals aren’t going to be able to come close to the New York teams.

    However, if we can get him in here and then offer him an extension at market rates (not counting on the famed discount), maybe you lock him up before he gets there.

  3. Rockin' the Red Says:

    I think the pitching rotation would be amazing once Carp returns. The only problem I see is that is a pretty anemic-looking offense, especially if Juan is unable to return (which looks to be a possible scenario) and Rolen is unable to return to form (another possible scenario). Ankiel and Ryan are no sure bets either. I hate to sound like Debbie-downer, but just giving my own opinion, a lot of things have to go right for a.) this deal to happen, and b.) the move to be able to pay off in the short run.

    Chris Duncan, Bryan Anderson, Anthony Reyes, and Jaime Garcia would seem like a competitive offer to me. It would need to happen in the off-season and you would need to have a verbal agreement with Santana for his 8/160 deal or whatever he would want. The middle infield absolutely has to be upgraded too.

  4. cardinal70 Says:

    Agreed, the offense would need some work. You’d have to spend some money to get a free agent outfielder. But if Rolen bounces back to even 75%, couple him with Pujols and free agent OF guy and you’d probably be able to get to league-average, which would be all you’d need.

    And if Ankiel is for real and Ryan can hold his own…..

  5. Rockin' the Red Says:

    So many question marks, so many ifs…. isn’t that how we got in trouble this season? Walt’s got a heck of a job on his hands this winter.


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