Transitioning

The last word on the Rolen trade: here’s a wrapup of his introductory press conference in Toronto. Sounds like he’s got a weight off his shoulders (no pun intended) and is ready to move on. I wish him the best up there and hope that he can get Toronto past those big obstacles that are the Yankees and the Red Sox.

So it’s over and we’ve got to move on. But to what?

It’s still just under a month until spring training. We pretty much know the starting lineup, or at least the players that will be in it. Shortstop still is up in the air, but all the options are likely on the roster. The rotation is pretty much set, though there has been talk that the Cards would try to pick up some sort of veteran innings-eater to help hedge against all the injury and rehab possibilities. Really, the signings are probably pretty much done.

For today, let’s talk fantasy. The numerous fantasy baseball leagues at CardsClubhouse are into their second week of drafting. Which Cardinals will draw the most interest from the average fantasy baseball player?

Obviously, Albert Pujols will be at the top of most people’s draft lists. His slightly-below-his-standards season last year might bump him out of the consensus #1 overall slot, but he’ll still be gone before the first round is over. The excellence that he has year in and year out can’t be overstated.

There will be a number of people taking Adam Wainwright as well, especially if they look past his overall numbers to what he did in the second half of the season last year. Wainwright and Jason Isringhausen may be the only pitchers that get much of a look from players, though.  Most people will take a wait and see approach with Mark Mulder, though perhaps Joel Pineiro might be attractive to NL-only players.

Back to the offense.  Troy Glaus will get some late-round attention, especially with him switching to the “easier” league.  Chris Duncan will go around the same time, maybe a bit earlier if people think he’s completely healed up.  Rick Ankiel will have people taking a few fliers on him.  With catching as tough to come by as it is, Yadier Molina’s season from last year should get him taken in the mid-to-late rounds.  And those with minor league systems might take a shot at getting Colby Rasmus.

Other than that, there probably won’t be much interest in the Cardinals from the fantasy players.  It’s not exactly the 2004 team in that regard.

Housekeeping

First off, if you’ve not been to VEB today, check out the All-Time Cardinal Team simulation tournament.  I’m going to be aiding Larry and Zubin there with keeping track of picks and brackets and perhaps writing a couple of game stories.

On a side note, there are probably going to be some changes around here in the near future as well.  More on that when it comes to fruition.

The United Cardinal Bloggers, those great guys with hits like the Cardinal Blogger Awards and the Year in Review, have been summoned again.  We’re discussing a potential January project.  If you’ve not gotten the e-mail, let me know and I’ll resend.

The Rolen trade is official.  With the money situation going from the Cardinals paying to the Blue Jays paying, it made the deal somewhat more palatable.  I’m never going to like it, but we accept what we can’t change and move on.   For a final word, here’s Bernie’s take on the issue.

That’s about it in Cardinal Nation for today.  I’ll try to do better tomorrow.

You Can’t Go Home Again

“Who says you can’t go home?”–Jon Bon Jovi

“You can’t go home again.”–Thomas Wolfe

The Rolen trade, while not yet official as far as I can tell, does seem like it’s going to happen.  The guys over at VEB have broken it down statistically and financially and pronounced it, if not good, at least acceptable.  Looking past the batting average and the past usage of performance-enhancing drugs, it’s possible that Glaus will be a good addition to the club.  Hopefully, that will be the case.  But I still hate the deal.

I hate the fact that it came to this.  That LaRussa and Rolen had to butt heads so much that it made playing on artificial turf in a new league in a totally different country more acceptable than playing in a new ballpark in front of some great fans.   There’s a failure here.  Whether it’s Rolen’s for not being more accepting of Tony’s management style or of TLR not finding some way to make nice with his third baseman, I’m not sure.  I will say again, though, that Rolen never complained to the press, never made it an issue.  You can’t say the same about LaRussa.

Rolen Rollin’?

Via CCH, I see that Rosenthal is reporting a Rolen for Glaus swap is just about to happen. Now, blogs are great for the short-term, immediate reaction type of writing, and I immediately say: I hate the deal. I will also note again that I’m a Rolen fan, so I’m sure my bias will be showing.

First off, let’s compare the lines from 2007:

Player	Games	AB	R	HR	RBI	BA/OBP/SLG
Glaus	115	60	101	20	62	.262/.366/.473
Rolen	112	55	104	8	58	.265/.331/.398

Do you see a lot of difference there? Save home runs, I don’t. Remember that Rolen played all year with a bad shoulder that sapped his power. If the surgery was successful this off-season, it’s very possible he’ll put up better numbers than Glaus does in 2008 even if you don’t factor in the defense.

Glaus has never batted over .300. Heck, he’s only hit over .260 twice, and one of those was .262. I know batting average isn’t the be-all and end-all like it used to be, but it is still pretty useful. Now, if he’s healthy, Glaus likely will put up 35-40 HR, so that is more pop than Rolen has shown in the last few years, but again, with a healthy Rolen, it’s not as much of a gap as you might think.

Glaus is 31, Rolen 32, so we really aren’t getting younger in the deal. The Cardinals will likely have to pay some of Rolen’s salary, so we aren’t getting financial relief. Glaus is a FA after ’09, Rolen ’10, but it’s not like we have a hot 3B prospect coming up that we need to clear a spot for.

If the Cardinals were getting some salary relief or some prospects, like Adam Lind for example, then maybe this would be more palatable. But straight up? I really don’t like it. LaRussa said they wouldn’t trade Scott just to trade him, but that is really what this smacks of. It’s better than sending him for a A ball prospect, of course, but it’s not a trade that, in my opinion, measurably helps the club.

At least Rolen will be able to mesh with Toronto’s new shortstop.  It’ll almost be like St. Louis North up there, with him, Eckstein and almost-Cardinal A.J. Burnett.

Happy New Year!

Hope everyone is having a great 2008 so far.  We are creeping closer and closer to spring training, which means that the Cardinals should start picking up the pace on transactions pretty soon.

Here are some predictions for 2008.  Some are serious, some aren’t.  (The ones that don’t happen are the non-serious ones, in case you can’t tell.)

*The Cardinals will win between 73-76 games.  The only chance for a contending season, in my mind, is a fast start somehow, then hanging on until Carpenter gets back.  The Cardinals would need Mulder to start strong from the get-go for this to happen, I think.  Still, even with another sub-.500 season, we’ll have a lot to talk about and enjoy.

*Albert Pujols will hit .300 with 30 HR and 100 RBI.  In other news, the sun will continue to rise in the east and set in the west.

*Scott Rolen will not be traded.  After he starts off the season closer to his normal form, his attitude improves and he’s much more able to tolerate LaRussa.  With his increased performance coupled with the lack of an immediate successor, Mozeliak decides to keep him on, though rumors will fly close to the trading deadline.

*Jim Edmonds gets at least two standing ovations in his first game back in Busch Stadium.

*Even with the rag-tag nature of the starting rotation, the team will post a better team ERA than they did in 2007.

*Colby Rasmus will be on the major league roster by the middle of June.  He’ll struggle at first, but will show the form that has everyone excited by mid-August.

*The Reds will surprise people, coming in a strong second to the Brewers in the division.

*The Red Sox will not win another World Series title.  Boston has to return to losing sometime.  (Doesn’t it?)

*Brian Barton will play all season in the majors and become a fan favorite off the bench.  He will get some starts, but TLR will not overexpose him.

*Chris Carpenter will not pitch in the major leagues until August.

*The Cardinals make a big splash in the 2008 free agent pool, signing an ace for the rotation and temporarily shutting up those that question ownership.

*I’ll keep blogging away on a regular basis.

Got your own predictions?  Let’s see them in the comments.