Missed Opportunities

As you should know by now, the Cardinals announced today the hiring of John Mozeliak as general manager, to replace Walt Jocketty, after first choice Chris Antonetti rejected their offer.  Derrick Gould has a primer on the new GM up at the PD website.

I expected an announcement today, but I sure didn’t expect it to be Mozeliak.  In my opinion, this whole offseason has been a chance to do things differently, to shake up the structure that was getting stale.  Now, we have the same manager and the assistant GM that’s been here forever as well.  As I said at VEB, instead of a shakeup, the organization is getting lightly stirred.

Ownership really should take a hard look at something.  You have a storied franchise.  You are willing to pay the top guy a good salary.  He comes and interviews and sounds enthused.  Then, he doesn’t take the job.   And while there is a lot of talk about possibly Cleveland’s GM moving up and Antonetti taking that spot, there’s also a lot of speculation that Antonetti and others in the interview process were turned off by the potential lack of control that they’d have in their duties.

So when you have top talent telling you this, you can do one of two things:

1) Make major changes and guarantees that the GM’s word goes or

2) Go for the backup guy.

Unfortunately, the Cardinals chose #2.  While I don’t hold anything against Mozeliak (though his moves as interim GM were uninspired and some unnecessary), the Cardinals had a chance to make the big play, to get the splash they needed to start the next Cardinal tidal wave.  Instead, it’s a small pebble dropped into the Mississippi.

Who Would You Be?

It’s Halloween, which got me to thinking. If money was no object, and you didn’t have to worry about race or gender, which Cardinal would you be for Halloween? You’ve got your classic types:

• The Hero. In Cardinal Nation, Superman and Batman are Pujols and Musial. Add in other superstars like Brock, Gibson and Ozzie and you have your own Justice League.
• The Scientist. No need for the lab coat and Bunsen burner, but you could take the braintrust types like Bing Devine, Walt Jocketty, Tony LaRussa or add a dash of “mad” with the White Rat.
• The Historical Figure.  Lincoln?  Reagan?  Who needs them when you could be Ducky Medwick or Jesse Haines.
• The Bad Guy. Staying in the Cardinal realm it is a little harder to come up with the evil villain. Perhaps Garry Templeton for his bird-like salute to the fans. Obviously, anyone in a Cubs uniform would qualify here, but that’s not what we are going for.
• The Scary Beings. No ghosts or monsters are required here when you could choose from the terribly frightening Danny Jackson, Jeff Brantley, Estaban Yan or Kip Wells. Not as many scary hitters to select, though perhaps the flop that was Bob Horner would qualify.

Me, I think I’d be painting my glove gold, practicing my back flip, and throwing a #1 jersey on my back. Ozzie was my favorite Cardinal growing up and he’d always be my first choice. And after all, what’s Halloween without a Wizard?

Final Update

Year	ALDS	NLDS	ALCS	NLCS	WS	Total
1995	8	7	6	4	6	31
1996	8	6	5	7	6	32
1997	9	6	6	6	7	34
1998	7	7	6	6	4	30
1999	8	8	5	6	4	31
2000	8	7	6	5	5	31
2001	10	8	5	5	7	35
2002	9	8	5	5	7	34
2003	9	9	7	7	6	38
2004	7	9	7	7	4	34
2005	8	7	5	6	4	30
2006	7	7	4	7	5	30
2007	7	6	7	4	4	28

The final update of the post-season chart.  You’ll notice that, save the ALCS that went 7, all other rounds had their fewest number of games ever.  So, in an offseason that MLB added off-days, fewer games were played in October since the pre-strike days.  No wonder there was never any big buildup or drama on the postseason.  There may only be one October, but this wasn’t the one you’d showcase as a classic.  Even the ALCS, the Red Sox just thumped Cleveland late enough in games to make the final scores look lopsided.  Hopefully October will be a little more dramatic in 2008.

That Was Quick

And, again, an American League team celebrates on foreign soil.  You’d think they’d start losing the All-Star Game so they could party at home, don’t you?

As for this whole “AL is dominant” stuff the major media keeps spewing….unfortunately, there may be something to that.  Since the strike year of ’94, the AL is 43-26 in the World Series, including five sweeps.  The closest the NL has gotten to a sweep was the Cardinals’ win in 5 games last year.  Right now, when coupled with their streak of winning All-Star games, it’s pretty apparent the AL is the top league, even though it’s painful to admit it.  These things are pretty cyclical, though.  A lot of the good young talent is in the NL, so they should be making some strides in the next few years.

Somewhere out there, a seven year old has seen two Red Sox championships and no Yankee titles.  Who’d have thought that’d ever happen?

A-Rod has already opted out of his deal.  However, I’m wondering if that might not come back to bite him.  The Yanks have been adamant that they aren’t going to deal with him.  The Cubs are in ownership flux, so they probably can’t go out and put together a record-setting package.  The Red Sox just won the title and they’ve said that they want to resign Lowell, so I’d be surprised if they made a major run at Rodriguez.  The Mets have been floated about, but they have Reyes at short and Wright at third.  Where would they put him?  It may just boil down to the Angels, and if they think they are the only ones in the race, there’s no way they’ll go $30 million per.  We’ll see how it pans out, but I think with the Yankees uninvolved, Rodriguez doesn’t get as much as he thinks he will.

Should be a busy week in baseball.  The Cardinals should announce their GM soon and the Yankees their manager.  The free agent market opens in two weeks.  While the season is great, the off-season has become a lot of fun in its own right!

The Rest of the PECOTA Story

Earlier, I compared the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA numbers and the community projections by Viva El Birdos and CardsClubhouse to the actual stats of some of the Cardinals. The ones in the previous post were players that had already been shut down for the year. With the season well over now, it’s time to reflect on the others that we projected before the season began.

Jim Edmonds

Source	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	BA	OBP	SLG
CCH	427	73	117	25	1	24	82	64	.274	.369	.506
VEB	425	79	116	21	1	25	86	69	.273	.375	.504
PECOTA		62		19	1	21	65	59	.253	.358	.482
Actual	365	39	92	15	2	12	53	41	.252	.325	.403

Edmonds, like most every player on the Cardinals, battled injuries throughout the year. The extent of his offseason surgery was probably underplayed in the minds of the Cardinal projectors, as Edmonds never quite got his groove on in 2007.

Edmonds is the only hitter that was left (surprisingly, we didn’t do Mr. Pujols, probably figuring it was too easy!), but there are three pitchers left to examine.