Yet Another Hurdle

OK, don’t you think the Astros could have waited until after the Cardinals got out of town before they fired their manager and GM?  Because you know that now the Astros get that “new manager boost” that seems to happen so often, where a team wins the first game after their manager is fired.  Sometimes they win two or three, which gives the press a fun angle to play with.  At least the Astros won Garner’s last game, so it’s not like they have a long losing streak that they need breaking as well.  Otherwise, the Cards might as well not show up tonight.

Tonight the Cardinals run out Braden Looper in a park that is not exactly pitcher friendly.  Of course, looking at the stats, there aren’t too many road parks that are friendly to Mr. Looper.  He’s got a 6.51 ERA on the road this year, with BAA/OPSA of .302/.820.  His last three starts have been pretty good, though (ERA of 2.50 with three straight games of 6-innings, four hits) and he has a 3.00 ERA against Houston this year in two starts.  So while he probably won’t be around to start the seventh, hopefully he can keep the team in the game.

The Cardinals get to face an old friend in Woody Williams.  Woody had a great run in St. Louis after being acquired for Ray Lankford in a waiver deal five years ago.  And when I look at the stats, I’m surprised that he’s had a solid, if not spectacular, season for the Astros this year as well.  His ERA is 4.84 (which looks a lot better than some of the ERAs the Cardinal starters have sported this year) and that ERA has dropped almost 60 points since a 7-run blowup against the Nationals five starts ago.  He has a 4.54 ERA at home, so the Crawford boxes aren’t getting to him too much.  If he were left-handed, I’d really say the Cards were in trouble.

So tonight’s matchup should be a good one.  Jim Edmonds has traditionally torn up Houston pitching, Scott Rolen has shown that a day off does wonders for him, and if Albert’s rolling, there could be a lot of runs put up tonight.  With the Cubs and Brewers facing off, tonight’s a game they really need to win.

On a side note, today is the fifth anniversary of the forum known as CardsClubhouse.   Congrats to Roark and the crew over there on a great five years!

Resiliency

For a time this weekend, I thought the Cards really were done.  My father has often pointed out in basketball where a team gets down 20 or so points, makes a big run, but if they don’t actually take the lead somewhere along the way, they tend to fade and give back a lot of their gains.  I was afraid Saturday evening that was going to be the story of the 2007 Cardinals. 

It was a tough few days for 70ATB favorites, as Anthony Reyes again had a rough inning and then Kip Wells self-destructed.  A two-game losing streak, one of which was coming against the kind of good team the Cardinals have to start winning against, and they were 4 games out and looking bad.

Then they go out and get down 3-0 to Tim Hudson.  Horton and Shannon were discussing on the radio that Hudson had won his last 76 games staked to a three run lead.  Shannon said, “Gotta end sometime!”  I really thought that was hometown optimism speaking, but apparently, it was a little prophetic as the Cards scored 5 in that inning, won the game, and cut a game off the Cubs’ lead.

After that rally on Saturday, it’d been really disappointing if they’d lost a game with their current ace starting.  Wainwright continued to be very impressive, the bats scored enough, and both of the teams in front of the Cards fell.  So, starting the last week of August, it’s:

Chicago            —

Milwaukee       1.5

St. Louis           2.0

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Cards have a 19% chance of making the playoffs.  Just three weeks ago, that was down around 3%

Today is the final day off for the Cardinals in 2007, as they now have 35 games in 34 days.  Though that’s a daunting task, it’s not quite as bad as you might think.

First off, the rosters expand Saturday, so that will help with the fatigue factor.  Mark Mulder is looking sharp in his minor league rehab, though he’s only thrown in Single A so far.  He should get another start probably Friday, then be activated soon after.  Having a fresh arm like his in the rotation should be helpful, especially with all the games coming up.

So let’s look at that schedule.  The Cards head off to Houston for a three game set there before returning to Busch for games against the Reds and Pirates.  In fact, the NL Central comprises most of the remainder of the games (28 of the 35).  The Cardinals have had success against their division mates this year, playing over .500 ball against them.  In fact, in comparison to the other divisions, they’ve dominated the Central, going 30-22 against those teams.  For comparison, the Cubs are just 27-26 and the Brewers 28-27.

The Cardinals also don’t draw too many strong games.  The next 10 games are against teams under .500.  In fact, based on the standings as of today, only 15 of the 35 games are against teams at .500 or over, and 8 of those are against the Cubs and the Brewers, who barely qualify.  The others are three games in Arizona, three games hosting Philadelphia, and the makeup game at Shea Stadium.

The games are pretty evenly split between home and away.  The Cards are a solid 34-29 at home (though obviously a reverse of 29-35 on the road).

As for the other teams, Chicago has a similar focus on the NL Central remaining, only facing the Dodgers and Florida outside of the division.  The Brewers probably have the roughest road, facing Atlanta on the road and San Diego at home amongst the Pirates, Astros, and Reds.

Milwaukee and Chicago start off against each other tomorrow night, so if the Cardinals continue to play winning ball, they’ll make up ground against someone.  The schedule is in their favor to do just that.

Missed Opportunities

With the Cubs losing earlier in the day and the Brewers off, yesterday would have been the best of times for a Cardinal win. Sadly, Anthony Reyes again caught slam-itis and the Marlins were off and running. Still, it was somewhat to be expected. The Marlins had lost eight in a row–it was about time for that streak to end. The Cards had won three in a row, and they’ve not shown they can put together much of an extended winning streak.

So the Atlanta Braves come into town tonight for a weekend set. The Cardinal pitchers are going to have to figure out a way to contain Mark Teixeira. Ever since he left Texas for a pennant race, the man has been energized, hitting 10 home runs since the beginning of the month. Add him to the Jones boys and Brian McCann and that offense can get running in a hurry.

The Braves pitching staff is solid as well, and the Cards get the unlucky draw by not missing either of the Atlanta aces. Tonight, Kip Wells matches up against future Hall of Famer John Smoltz. Wells must be wondering what’s going on here, having faced Chicago ace Carlos Zambrano last time out (in a game that got rained out). Eventually you think age will get to Smoltz, but he’s not showing it this year.

Tomorrow night, newbie Cardinal Joel Pineiro gets Tim Hudson. It looked like Billy Beane had fleeced two teams in two days after the results of Hudson and Mark Mulder the last couple of years. However, Hudson has rebounded to his Oakland levels and could create a long night for the Birds.

Sunday, you get Reyes vs. Wainwright. No, not the general discussion around Cardinal Nation. This is Jo-Jo Reyes, so at least this pitching matchup, on paper, would go to the Cards. Though Reyes is a lefty with a high ERA that the Cards haven’t seen before, basically a recipe for a two-hit shutout.

If the Cards can take two of three and stay within a couple of games of the Cubs and Brewers, it’s a successful weekend. How they do in the next three days may let us know whether our optimism for September is warranted.

Playing a Hard 9

One of the trademarks of a Tony LaRussa team, especially since he’s been in St. Louis, has been the concept of a “hard 9″.  Playing until the final out, never giving up, never giving away at bats.  The team, in the past, has responded to this idea and really come up with some remarkable wins.

Earlier this year, that concept seemed to be lost somewhat.  The struggles of the team seemed to be reflected in some of the effort of the players.   This recent hot streak, though, has shown that while the idea may have been dormant, it hasn’t left the building.

Last night was another indication of that.  Looper pitched a pretty solid game.   One run in six innings is about the best you can expect from him, and with Pujols hitting a home run in his fifth straight game (a personal record, plus it got him to his normal 30 per year), he had a 3-1 lead after six innings.

Unfortunately, that’s when LaRussa got a little greedy and sent Looper out there for the seventh.  I noted in the past the stat that his BAA after 75 pitches was closing in on .400.  A leadoff double was enough to send Tony to the bullpen and bring in the normally reliable Ryan Franklin.

I’m not sure what was wrong with Franklin last night, but everything he threw seemed to get hit hard and, after a Jeremy Hermida home run, the Cards trailed 4-3.  After last night’s rally, it looked like the Marlins were going to turn the table on us.

However, that pitching change was a double switch that brought Jim Edmonds into the game, and he smacked the home run that won it in the bottom of that inning.   If Edmonds and Rolen can get going like they’ve shown signs of doing, this offense is going to be good enough to hang with most anyone.  If the pitching staff holds up like they have been, the Central Division title is still possible, with October surprises within the realm of possibility, as well.

That is, of course, if the Big Guy is OK.  Apparently Pujols had some numbness in his leg last night and it caused some concern with him and especially the manager.   Of course, that was right before he hit the home run and he played the rest of the game, so maybe it’s not as bad as some want to make it out to be.  But if we lose him even for a 15-day DL stint, that’s a blow I’m not sure this suddenly resilient team can come back from.

Checking the scoreboard, Milwaukee lost and the Cubs won in extras.  So it looks like this:

Chicago       —
Milwaukee 1.0
St. Louis     3.0

Cards go for the sweep tonight behind Anthony Reyes.  Should be a good game to watch.

30?

Hats off to the Rangers, who last night set a modern day record with 30 runs in a game. 30 runs! Heck, the Cardinals had trouble scoring 30 runs in two weeks earlier in the season.

They were down 3-0 in this game. When you think “comeback win”, I’m not sure you expect to come back to +27.

Daniel Cabrera started for the Orioles. You figure he went into the clubhouse when he was pulled from the game and thought, “Man, another rough start, 6 runs in five innings, I suck.” Then he saw the bullpen give up 24 in four innings and thought, “Dude, I’m way better than I thought.”

The Rangers scored 10 in the eighth and sixth in the ninth. Jarrod Saltalamacchia raised his average 83 points, which is very good because he and Ian Kinsler are on my rotisserie team.

And, surprisingly enough, they weren’t shut out in the second game of the doubleheader. You just had to figure the irony was there for the taking!